WARC Report Predicts Digital Ad Spend to Remain Resilient
The global advertising industry is bracing for a significant downturn, with projections indicating a $20 billion reduction in ad spend over the next two years.
Economic volatility, trade tariffs, and tightening regulations are squeezing margins and dampening business confidence, forcing brands to reassess their marketing budgets.
According to the latest insights from marketing analytics firm WARC, growth forecasts for global ad spend have been downgraded by 0.9 percentage points to 6.7% in 2025 and by 0.7 percentage points to 6.3% in 2026.
This substantial revision reflects broader economic challenges, including the threat of stagflation and a possible recession in key markets.
Mounting Pressures on Key Sectors
“The global ad market faces mounting uncertainty as trade tariffs, economic stagnation, and tightening regulation disrupt key sectors, leading us to cut growth prospects by US$20 billion over the next two years,” said James McDonald, author of WARC’s report and director of Data Intelligence and Forecasting.
Industries such as automotive, retail, and technology are particularly vulnerable, with rising manufacturing costs and ongoing supply chain disruptions prompting many brands to scale back their advertising budgets.
Major players like Best Buy, Walmart, and Chipotle have already signalled concerns over stiff taxation and regulatory burdens, further complicating the landscape.
The Digital Silver Lining
Amidst these challenges, digital advertising remains a beacon of resilience.
Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta continue to dominate the space, and projections suggest they will control over half of the digital ad market by 2029.
However, uncertainties persist.
TikTok’s future in the U.S. hangs in the balance due to regulatory scrutiny, potentially disrupting digital ad strategies.
Yet, McDonald urges brands to remain agile.
“Advertisers must be nimble to seize initiative in this shifting landscape.”
As marketers traverse an increasingly unpredictable environment, adaptability and strategic investment in digital channels will be crucial to sustaining growth.
While traditional ad spending contracts, the digital realm offers a pathway for brands willing to pivot and innovate in response to evolving market dynamics.
